The Budget’s Hidden Impact on Hospitality

Last week’s Budget sparked the predictable headlines about a “two-speed economy.” But after digging into the numbers, it’s clear that this tidy metaphor misses the real story  and the operators carrying the heaviest load aren’t who ministers seem to think.

In fact, hospitality is now running at three very different speeds, and the middle tier — the ambitious multi-site operators without big-chain cushioning or owner-operator flexibility — is being squeezed harder than anyone is admitting. Business rates, wage pressures and a collapsing talent pipeline are only part of the picture. The real fault line is something government hasn’t even acknowledged: pricing power.

Meanwhile, two high-profile subscription schemes — Ryanair’s Prime and Leon’s Roast Rewards — collapsed last week, offering a stark reminder of how easily “generosity” becomes a financial or operational liability. Pret’s quieter course-correction shows what a sustainable model actually looks like.

If you want to understand what the Budget really means for operators, what’s driving the divide between winners and strugglers and the subscription lessons everyone in foodservice should now consider, read the full analysis here.

It’s more nuanced — and more urgent — than the headlines suggest.