Why the best hospitality operators don’t trust their plans

Plans are comforting. They’re neat, polished and reassuringly precise.  But in hospitality, they might also be quietly dangerous.

In this week’s issue, I explore a counterintuitive idea borrowed from President Eisenhower and Winston Churchill: plans matter far less than planning. A plan is a document. Planning is a capability. One fixes your thinking in time; the other prepares you to adapt when the market inevitably shifts.

If that sounds abstract, it isn’t. The pub sector’s journey - from wet-led, to food-led, through Covid, and back again - offers a stark lesson. Many operators had plans. Far fewer had the planning mindset that allowed them to survive repeated shocks. The difference wasn’t forecasting accuracy. It was how deeply they understood their customers, tested assumptions and prepared their teams to make decisions under uncertainty.

I also dig into new ONS data that challenges a long-held industry assumption: when you need a new manager, who should you really promote? The answer may surprise you. By analysing millions of job ads, the data reveals which roles actually build the commercial, leadership and financial skills that managers need and which don’t. The implications for promotion, burnout and performance are hard to ignore.

If you operate in an industry where conditions change weekly, or daily, this isn’t theory. It’s a practical lens on why some businesses adapt while others cling to projections that no longer fit reality.  A plan gives you a starting point, the planning gives you a chance.

Read the full article.