The impact of Covid-19 has three stages..
There seems to be a coalescing view across the industry that there are three stages to the impact of Covid-19, and on this occasion I very much agree.
The first stage is the one we are in now and it will last until lockdown restrictions are lifted sufficiently for people to be allowed to visit restaurants and pubs. The second stage is from then until consumers feel comfortable about visiting these places – and that is likely to have to wait until there is a vaccine or some mitigation of the effects of the virus. The third stage is from then onwards, in what many are referring to as a “new normal”. Each stage has its moment of truth and I outline these in my Weekly Briefing Report.
In terms of the numbers, there is likely to be a 66% decline in sales compared to last year. And, this assumes some relaxation of the lockdown restrictions by the summer and a reasonable level of trading by the end of the year. So, it seems some of the most challenging times are yet to come.
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